OPEC Cuts Set To Exempt Nigeria, Libya; Iraq Says It's 'Special'

OPEC Cuts Set To Exempt Nigeria, Libya; Iraq Says It's 'Special'

"With greater confidence that the global oil market can finally shift into deficit later next year, we now believe that there is a strong rationale for low-priced producers to deliver a swift production cut to normalize inventories", analysts including Damien Courvalin said in a research note Monday. Among the best performing emerging market energy stocks this week: Chilean oil-and-gas exploration company GeoPark (GPRK) and Brazil's state-controlled Petroleo Brasileiro or Petrobras (PBR) are each up 9%, South Africa's Sasol (SSL) is up almost 6%, and the following stocks are up roughly 5% apiece in USA trading: Argentina's YPF (YPF), China's Cnooc (CEO) and Colombia's Ecopetrol (EC).

International Brent crude oil futures had nearly hit $50 yesterday as a deal to reduce output seemed likely.

As of 12:00 p.m. today, the price of crude oil was $47.77. For more on OPEC's meeting, read Part 1 of this series.

Should OPEC and other producers, especially Russian Federation, fail to agree a cutback, Goldman said it expected an oil supply surplus of 0.7 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter of 2017.

Skepticism over the success of the deal intensified after the technical meeting in Vienna over the weekend ended inconclusively as producers weren't able to resolve their differences on current production levels, said ANZ Research.

Browns brutalized in 24-9 loss to Steelers
Robert Griffin III will practice this week for the first time since a bone in his left shoulder was broken in the season opener. Browns coach Hue Jackson said it's possible Kessler may need extra time to recover from his second concussion since October 23.

Since then, oil prices have risen and fallen on news over the negotiations.

The meeting which was set way back late September this year at the conclusion of the International Energy Forum in Algiers raised market expectation on the much talked about oil output cut outlook.

"Once the dust settles and a deal has been reached, the market may want to see whether the cartel is able, for the first time in years, to comply with its own stated production targets". However, on November 19, Iran's oil minister announced a final deal was "highly likely". Looking further out, President-elect Donald Trump's support for the fossil fuel industry and promises to open up Federal lands for exploration will further undermine the ability of OPEC to achieve a sustained uplift of prices through the close of the decade.

WTI crude oil closed at $45.45 per barrel on Election Day and slid 3.4% by the end of the week.

"No groundbreaking agreement on production caps or cuts should be expected from the OPEC meeting", the German bank said in a note. The U.S. economy grew 0.7 percent in the third quarter, against a rate of 0.4 percent in the previous quarter. "However, such a scenario does not seem very likely, and even if such a deal would be reached, we expect the effects to be only temporary".